Russian Economy Suddenly Shrinks in November

Russia’s economy unexpectedly contracted in November, hit by a drop in industrial production, the economy ministry said on Monday.

Gross domestic product shrank 0.3 percent year on year in November, the economy ministry said, contrasting with analysts’ consensus call for a 1.5 percent growth.

Russia’s oil-dependent economy was on the mend in 2017 after two years of recession, triggered by a sharp drop in global commodity prices as well as sanctions imposed by Western countries against Moscow for its role in the Ukrainian crisis.

In November, GDP was dragged down by the industrial sector where output contracted 3.6 percent compared with a year ago. The economy ministry said it blamed the weaker industrial output on the global agreement of major oil producers, including Russia, to limit crude production in order to prop up commodity prices. The ministry also said the industrial output sank because of the warm weather, which pressured demand for natural gas on either domestic and foreign markets. (more…)

Cental Bank’s forecasts

Russian Central Bank is anticipating a decrease of GDP growth by less than 1% in 2014.

“Right now we think that the realization of our economic growth forecast for 2014, which was made last year, is hardly probable. We had expected the growth to be 1.5-1.8%. Now, in our opinion, the rate of growth deceleration till less than 1% is most probable”, – Elvira Nabiullina, the head of Russian Central Bank, said during the Association of Russian Banks conference.

According to Rosstat estimations, last year GDP of Russian Federation increased by 1.3%. This year Ministry of Economic Development is expecting a GDP slowdown till 1.8% in case of a capital outflow stabilization at the level of $60-70 billion. If the capital outflow is more than $100 billion, GDP growth will hardy be more than 0.6%. Concurrently, the official rate of GDP forecast remains at the level of 2.5%. It will be revised in the beginning of April.

Russia’s GDP to amount to 4.5% by 2012

Russia’s GDP is to amount to 4.2%-4.5% by 2012, the Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said Sunday speaking at a session of the Russian economic forum in Strasbourg in France.

He said that there are conditions for the strengthening of ruble and added that Russia’s state debt issue is in a relatively “safe harbor”.

Klepach said his ministry does not expect a drastic hike in prices on food products while the oil price is likely to exceed $100 per barrel.


Russian Q1 GDP Below Expectations

Russia’s gross domestic product in Q1 2011 grew 4.1% from a year earlier, the Federal Statistics Service said Monday, below both the Economy Ministry’s estimate and the banks’ consensus. Both the ministry, which had expected a 4.5% growth, and analysts, who had expected on average a 4.2% growth, noted that the country’s GDP grew amid low investment demand in the whole economy. “We were anticipating an even lower figure, as we expected the robust growth in retail sales to have supported imports,” Sanna Kurronen from Danske Bank said. The more detailed figures will be available mid-June.


The Ministry of Finance Aims Annual Economy Growth of 6-7%

According to Alexey Kudrin, Vice prime-minister and Minister of Finance, Russian GDP should gain 6-7% annually. Last year GDP saw the 4% growth and reached RUB 44.49trn. The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development expects GDP growth 2011 to reach 4.2%, 2012 – 3.9%, 2013 – 4.5%. In January 2011 The Ministry of Economic Development estimated the annualized economy growth at 4.3%.